Key messages
DROP IN INVESTMENT VOLUME
Commercial real estate investment volumes in Europe are expected to fall dramatically in 2020. However, the investment market is still performing in most countries despite the lockdown measures.
CORE ASSETS MORE SOUGHT AFTER
Investors should focus more than ever on prime locations and the pressure on prime yields may still be strong after the crisis. In some markets, the risk premium between core and non-core assets could come under pressure.
CONTROLLED INCREASE IN VACANCY
The increase in office vacancy will be more significant than expected but under control in most markets. Most central business districts should maintain high rental values. The average rents could moderately decrease in some districts where the structural vacancy remains high.
RECESSION LOOMING
The measures to prevent the spread of the pandemic are having a profound impact on the economy which is increasingly showing up in the economic data. The second half year should see an improvement in activity.
FISCAL AND MONETARY RESPONSES
Record declines in business sentiment illustrate the necessity of the forceful policy measures which have already been taken. The lifting of the lockdowns will trigger a rebound in activity but additional stimulus will probably be needed.